Final Month of Hurricane Season: Unusual November Storms on the Horizon

As November begins, we enter the final month of the Atlantic hurricane season—a period that typically sees a drop in storm activity. Historical patterns reveal that, on average, November produces only one named storm every two years, with hurricanes emerging just once every two or three years. However, while rare, impactful tropical storms and hurricanes can still develop during this time.

Currently, there is a broad area of low pressure forming in the western Caribbean, where sea surface temperatures remain unusually high. The National Hurricane Center has given this disturbance a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm by early next week.

“Convection and wind patterns are likely to stay favorable for another 10 to 14 days,” noted Phil Klotzbach, meteorologist and research scientist at Colorado State University. He explained that low vertical wind shear combined with warm Caribbean waters creates conditions ripe for continued tropical activity. In addition to the Caribbean system, forecasters are also monitoring two other disturbances in the Atlantic, though each has only a 10% chance of further development.

While it is still too early to predict the path of this potential Caribbean system, there’s a possibility it may move northward into the southern Gulf of Mexico, where water temperatures have recently cooled. The system’s movement will largely depend on interactions with a high-pressure system situated over the southeastern U.S., which could steer it in different directions. If this disturbance strengthens, it may bring impacts to the Gulf Coast by late next week.

The recent surge in tropical activity can be attributed to changes in upper-level winds, which are diverging and promoting updrafts. This updraft mechanism pulls warmer air from the ocean surface, aiding in the development of thunderstorms that can fuel tropical systems.

Historical data shows that November accounts for only about 10% of tropical storm activity in an average season. Last year, no named storms were recorded in November, but the previous year saw three—each intensifying into a hurricane. Notably, Hurricane Nicole made landfall north of Miami near Vero Beach on November 10, 2022. As Klotzbach noted, while November is quieter than the peak season in September, even moderate activity at this time of year can still be significant.

Tropical systems in November tend to form in the western Caribbean, where the current disturbance is located, but they can also develop in the western Atlantic near the Carolina coast and in the Central Atlantic.

The most intense November hurricane on record, Hurricane Lenny, reached winds of 155 mph in 1999, moving eastward through the Caribbean before impacting the northern Leeward Islands. Elevated sea surface temperatures, influenced by climate change, are likely to increase the risk of additional tropical storms, extending the threat potentially into December. If wind shear remains relaxed, as forecasted over the next two weeks, one or two more named storms could emerge.

In terms of seasonal statistics, the 2024 hurricane season has been notably active. Colorado State University reports a high level of accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), which combines the total wind speed of storms throughout their lifetimes, with recent figures surpassing the average for this point in the season.

Many meteorologists view this season as “back-loaded,” with an unprecedented eight named storms forming between September 24 and October 19. During October, the Atlantic saw three simultaneous hurricanes for the first time since record-keeping began in the 1850s.

As we look toward the season’s close, the Caribbean and Gulf remain areas to watch for late-season storm development.

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