Projected Surge in “Good Jobs” by 2031: Georgetown University Report Emphasizes Higher Education’s Role

In a significant forecast for the U.S. job market, a new report from the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce (CEW) projects a robust increase in “good jobs” by 2031, with higher education emerging as a critical factor. According to “The Future of Good Jobs: Projections Through 2031,” the number of such positions is expected to rise by 15.2 million, with a staggering 85% of these roles requiring some level of postsecondary education.

CEW defines a “good job” as one that pays at least $43,000 nationally, with median earnings of $74,000 for workers aged 25 to 44, and at least $55,000 with median earnings of $91,000 for those aged 45 to 64. For workers across all age groups, the median earnings for a good job stand at $82,000.

The report forecasts that by 2031, good jobs will be available across various educational pathways, but the distribution will be heavily skewed. Workers with a bachelor’s degree are projected to secure the majority of these positions. Specifically, 66% of the good jobs, totaling 58.2 million, will be accessible to individuals with a bachelor’s degree or higher. Conversely, only 19% (16.4 million) will be available to those with middle-skills qualifications, such as an associate’s degree or a certificate, and 15% (13.2 million) will be allocated to high school diploma holders or less.

CEW Director Jeff Strohl noted, “We are navigating a period of substantial economic transformation, influenced by factors such as retiring baby boomers, advancements in generative AI, ongoing inflationary pressures, and geopolitical tensions. Nonetheless, the outlook is positive, with the anticipated increase in good jobs driven by technological advancements, a growth in high-skill occupations, and increasing political pressure to improve job quality.”

The report introduces the concept of “promising occupations,” which are roles projected to offer the best chances for securing a good job. These occupations must either be expected to employ a higher share of workers with specific educational qualifications or meet the income-based criteria of a good job. Notably, while promising occupations will be available across all educational pathways, the bachelor’s degree pathway will dominate, with ten promising occupational groups compared to just one for high school diploma holders.

A significant finding is the widening gap in job quality based on education level. By 2031, only 36% of jobs accessible to high school graduates will be considered good, whereas 79% of jobs available to those with a bachelor’s degree and 52% of those with middle-skills qualifications will meet the good job criteria.

Managerial and professional office occupations are expected to lead in generating good jobs, with 84% of these positions falling within the bachelor’s degree pathway. Other areas such as education, healthcare, and computer science will also see substantial opportunities for those with advanced degrees.

On the other hand, the middle-skills pathway will still present valuable opportunities, particularly in blue-collar sectors like construction, healthcare, and protective services. Federal infrastructure investments are anticipated to bolster good job prospects within these areas.

For high school graduates, however, the outlook is less favorable. The report predicts a decline in good jobs for those on the high school pathway in ten out of 22 occupational groups. Nevertheless, some growth is expected in sectors like construction for middle-skills workers, offsetting losses in the high school pathway.

Catherine Morris, a co-author of the report, emphasized the complementary nature of the educational pathways. “Despite growing skepticism about the value of a college degree, our findings affirm that a bachelor’s degree will remain the dominant route to securing a good job. Meanwhile, middle-skills pathways will continue to provide important opportunities, highlighting the need for both educational routes to coexist and support each other.”

As the U.S. workforce prepares for these shifts, individuals and policymakers alike will need to focus on enhancing educational opportunities to align with the evolving job market landscape.